Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points

Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5°C assume planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard-to-mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non-zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium “committed” warming, captured in the concept of “equilibrium climate sensitivity.” This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5°C threshold and the 2.0°C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net-zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events

Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume

The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (rg =-0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness

Measurement of prompt photon production in sNN√=8.16 TeV p+Pb collisions with ATLAS

The inclusive production rates of isolated, prompt photons in p+Pb collisions at sNN√=8.16 TeV are studied with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider using a dataset with an integrated luminosity of 165 nb−1 recorded in 2016. The cross-section and nuclear modification factor RpPb are measured as a function of photon transverse energy from 20 GeV to 550 GeV and in three nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass pseudorapidity regions, (-2.83,-2.02), (-1.84,0.91), and (1.09,1.90). The cross-section and RpPb values are compared with the results of a next-to-leading-order perturbative QCD calculation, with and without nuclear parton distribution function modifications, and with expectations based on a model of the energy loss of partons prior to the hard scattering. The data disfavour a large amount of energy loss and provide new constraints on the parton densities in nuclei.We acknowledge the support of ANPCyT, Argentina; YerPhI, Ar-menia; ARC, Australia; BMWFW and FWF, Austria; ANAS, Azer-baijan; SSTC, Belarus; CNPq and FAPESP, Brazil; NSERC, NRC and CFI, Canada; CERN; CONICYT, Chile; CAS, MOST and NSFC, China; COLCIENCIAS, Colombia; MSMT CR, MPO CR and VSC CR, Czech Republic; DNRF and DNSRC, Denmark; IN2P3-CNRS, CEA-DRF/IRFU, France; SRNSFG, Georgia; BMBF, HGF, and MPG, Germany; GSRT, Greece; RGC, Hong Kong SAR, China; ISF and Benoziyo Center, Is-rael; INFN, Italy; MEXT and JSPS, Japan; CNRST, Morocco; NWO, Netherlands; RCN, Norway; MNiSW and NCN, Poland; FCT, Portu-gal; MNE/IFA, Romania; MES of Russia and NRC KI, Russian Fed-eration; JINR; MESTD, Serbia; MSSR, Slovakia; ARRS and MIZŠ, Slovenia; DST/NRF, South Africa; MINECO, Spain; SRC and Wallen-berg Foundation, Sweden; SERI, SNSF and Cantons of Bern and Geneva, Switzerland; MOST, Taiwan; TAEK, Turkey; STFC, United Kingdom; DOE and NSF, United States of America. In addition, in-dividual groups and members have received support from BCKDF, Canarie, CRC and Compute Canada, Canada; COST, ERC, ERDF, Hori-zon 2020, and Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, European Union; Investissements d’ Avenir Labex and Idex, ANR, France; DFG and AvH Foundation, Germany; Herakleitos, Thales and Aristeia pro-grammes co-financed by EU-ESF and the Greek NSRF, Greece; BSF-NSF and GIF, Israel; CERCA Programme Generalitat de Catalunya, Spain; The Royal Society and Leverhulme Trust, United Kingdom

Evidence for the production of three massive vector bosons with the ATLAS detector

A search for the production of three massive vector bosons in proton-proton collisions is performed using data at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in the years 2015-2017, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of $79.8$ fb$^{-1}$. Events with two same-sign leptons $\ell$ (electrons or muons) and at least two reconstructed jets are selected to search for $WWW \to \ell \nu \ell \nu qq$. Events with three leptons without any same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pairs are used to search for $WWW \to \ell \nu \ell\nu \ell \nu$, while events with three leptons and at least one same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair and one or more reconstructed jets are used to search for $WWZ \to \ell \nu qq \ell \ell$. Finally, events with four leptons are analysed to search for $WWZ \to \ell \nu \ell \nu \ell \ell$ and $WZZ \to qq \ell \ell \ell \ell$. Evidence for the joint production of three massive vector bosons is observed with a significance of 4.1 standard deviations, where the expectation is 3.1 standard deviations.Comment: 38 pages in total, author list starting page 22, 6 figures, 5 tables, matching published paper in Phys. Lett. B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2017-2

Prompt and non-prompt J/psi elliptic flow in Pb plus Pb collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The elliptic flow of prompt and non-prompt J/ \u3c8 was measured in the dimuon decay channel in Pb+Pb collisions at sNN=5.02 TeV with an integrated luminosity of 0.42nb-1 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The prompt and non-prompt signals are separated using a two-dimensional simultaneous fit of the invariant mass and pseudo-proper decay time of the dimuon system from the J/ \u3c8 decay. The measurement is performed in the kinematic range of dimuon transverse momentum and rapidity 9 < pT< 30 GeV , | y| < 2 , and 0\u201360% collision centrality. The elliptic flow coefficient, v2, is evaluated relative to the event plane and the results are presented as a function of transverse momentum, rapidity and centrality. It is found that prompt and non-prompt J/ \u3c8 mesons have non-zero elliptic flow. Prompt J/ \u3c8v2 decreases as a function of pT, while for non-prompt J/ \u3c8 it is, with limited statistical significance, consistent with a flat behaviour over the studied kinematic region. There is no observed dependence on rapidity or centrality

Search for squarks and gluinos in final states with hadronically decaying tau-leptons, jets, and missing transverse momentum using pp collisions at root s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets, and at least one hadronically decaying τ-lepton is presented. Two exclusive final states with either exactly one or at least two τ-leptons are considered. The analysis is based on proton-proton collisions at √s=13  TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1  fb⁻¹ delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess is observed over the Standard Model expectation. At 95% confidence level, model-independent upper limits on the cross section are set and exclusion limits are provided for two signal scenarios: a simplified model of gluino pair production with τ-rich cascade decays, and a model with gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking (GMSB). In the simplified model, gluino masses up to 2000 GeV are excluded for low values of the mass of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP), while LSP masses up to 1000 GeV are excluded for gluino masses around 1400 GeV. In the GMSB model, values of the supersymmetry-breaking scale are excluded below 110 TeV for all values of tanβ in the range 2 ≤ tanβ ≤ 60, and below 120 TeV for tanβ > 30.M. Aaboud … D. Duvnjak … P. Jackson … J.L. Oliver … A. Petridis … A. Qureshi … A.S. Sharma … M.J. White … et al. [The ATLAS Collaboration

Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume

The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease (rg=−0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness

Common genetic variants influence human subcortical brain structures

The highly complex structure of the human brain is strongly shaped by genetic influences1. Subcortical brain regions form circuits with cortical areas to coordinate movement2, learning, memory3 and motivation4, and altered circuits can lead to abnormal behaviour and disease2. To investigate how common genetic variants affect the structure of these brain regions, here we conduct genome-wide association studies of the volumes of seven subcortical regions and the intracranial volume derived from magnetic resonance images of 30,717 individuals from 50 cohorts. We identify five novel genetic variants influencing the volumes of the putamen and caudate nucleus. We also find stronger evidence for three loci with previously established influences on hippocampal volume5 and intracranial volume6. These variants show specific volumetric effects on brain structures rather than global effects across structures. The strongest effects were found for the putamen, where a novel intergenic locus with replicable influence on volume (rs945270; P = 1.08 × 10−33; 0.52% variance explained) showed evidence of altering the expression of the KTN1 gene in both brain and blood tissue. Variants influencing putamen volume clustered near developmental genes that regulate apoptosis, axon guidance and vesicle transport. Identification of these genetic variants provides insight into the causes of variability in human brain development, and may help to determine mechanisms of neuropsychiatric dysfunction